
One of the biggest misconceptions people have about solar is that it is just about to become so cheap that you better not get any now, because in a few years it will be much cheaper. A common belief is that an astounding technological breakthrough is just around the corner and about to make solar cheaper.
While it is true that technological breakthroughs happen all the time, most are at the lab research stage. That does not guarantee that any of them will ever actually make it past the “valley of death” as VC funders call it, to actually go into production, so that someone can actually buy them, in the US.
Then, because they are radical new technology, they have to be tested and certified by the state (at least in California, which pays the rebates based on “expected performance”) as able to last 40 years or so. The original crystalline solar developed in the Carter years is the only solar that has been proved to last 40 years, because, in the real world, it has. For at least the next decade, tried and tested solar tech that is on the market now is your best bet.
You also have to consider what the future might hold for renewable energy, politically, in this country. Rebates and incentives that now lower your costs might soon be a thing of the past.
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