
The ever-increasing bounty of agriculture has been with us as long as I can remember, but it may have finally hit the dreaded Peak, according to a new study published in CropScience by Robert Graybosch, a geneticist at the University of Nebraska and James Patterson, a geneticist at Oregon State University.
Genetic improvements have increased wheat yields about 1% each year since the late ’50s. But in 1984, several scientists noticed that the average yield improvement seemed to have slowed, in a sign that genetic gain was plateauing.
Graybosch and Patterson then went back in and made a more detailed study, carefully analyzing the last 50 years of data collected by the Department of Agriculture. They found that ever since the early ’80s, genetic gain has continued to steadily drop. And now it appears to have come to a halt.
